October 2024 Colorado 8th District

Yadira Caraveo (D) 46% leads Gabe Evans (R) 42%

CD-08 race, Issues, Amendment 79, & Initiative 131

October 3, 2024

COLORADO – A new poll of Colorado’s Eighth Congressional District (CO-8) conducted by Colorado Community Research (CCR) shows notable results for the district’s US House race where incumbent Yadira Caraveo (D) holds a 4-point lead over Gabe Evans (R), as well as two statewide ballot measures on the right to abortion and an overhaul of the state’s candidate election system.

CO-8 House Race

Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Gabe Evans in the CO-8 race. The poll, of likely November 2024 voters, indicates that Caraveo leads with 46% of voter preference, compared to Evans' 42%, with 11% still undecided.

The poll highlights the competitiveness in the CO-8 district, which is one of the most contested in the country.

CCR had several notable findings on the CO-8 US House race:

  • Self-identified Hispanic or Latino voters roughly split between the two candidates: 

    • Caraveo: 42%

    • Evans: 41%

  • Undecided voters most often selected these issues in their top two:

    • Economy/Cost of Living: 65%

    • Borders/Immigration: 37%

    • Healthcare: 17%

  • Caraveo had strongest support among voter groups:

    • Gen Z Women: 68%

    • Boomer+ Women: 56%

    • Yes on Amendment 79 (right to abortion): 75%

  • Evans had strongest support among voter groups:

    • No on Amendment 79: 85%

    • Border Security / Immigration in their Top 2 Issues: 80%

    • Millennial Men: 57%

CO-8 - Colorado Amendment 79 - Right to Abortion

Additionally in District 8, CCR found substantial support for Amendment 79, Constitutional Right to Abortion: 56% of voters supported a right to abortion, with 35% against, and 9% undecided. Amendment 79 requires 55% approval statewide for passage, indicating the level of support found in the poll is not statistically different from the level required to pass the measure within the district.

CCR had several notable findings on Amendment 79 in our survey of the district:

  • Support had a significant partisan breakdown:

    • Democrats: 93%

    • Republicans: 14%

    • Unaffiliated: 58%

  • 62% of women support the measure

  • 50% of men support the measure

Although CCR did not poll statewide on Amendment 79, given the relatively split partisanship in CO-8, the district may be a bellwether of support for the measure statewide.

CO-8 - Colorado Proposition 131 - Top 4 Primary and Ranked Choice Voting

CCR polled another substantial issue in District 8, Colorado Proposition 131, which would significantly change how state and federal offices elect representatives. CCR found that current sentiment puts support for Prop 131 at 51%, opposition at 29%, with a significant portion of undecided voters at 20%. Prop 131 is a statewide measure that requires 50% + 1 for passage.

CCR had several notable findings on Proposition 131 in our survey of the district:

  • Support had a moderate partisan breakdown:

    • Democrats: 56%

    • Republicans: 32%

    • Unaffiliated: 56%

  • Support was inversely correlated with age:

    • Gen Z: 60%

    • Millennial: 55%

    • Gen X: 48%

    • Boomer+: 42%

As voters prepare for the upcoming election, the results of this poll signal a competitive race that will require both candidates to sharpen their strategies and engage with the community effectively.

Methodology

These results are based on a poll of 600 likely November 2024 voters in Colorado 8th Congressional District via a text-to-web online survey. The sample is distributed to represent likely November 2024 voters in District 08 based on party registration, gender, age, and region. The worst case margin of error is +/- 4.6% at the 95% confidence level, including the design effect. The poll was conducted from September 20 - 25, 2024, by Colorado Community Research, LLC.

This poll was commissioned by Colorado Community Research as an independent poll.